Florida’s presidential under votes 251% higher than 2012. Would it have helped Clinton?

voteOver the past few hours, we have been hearing about Michigan’s under vote problem. However, with most of the numbers now in, we are seeing that the State of Florida also had a massive under vote issue in the presidential election.

In 2012, the amount of under votes in the presidential race was 64,085. In 2016, that number has spiked to 160,601, a 250.6% increase in Florida’s under votes. If we look at the percentages, only .75% of people who cast their ballots in Florida did not vote in the presidential race. In 2016, that percentage has jumped to 1.71%. And yes, the current margin between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in Florida is 1.27%.

So, naturally, we ask if Clinton would have benefited from those under votes. If we look at the county level data, the answer seems to be yes. Running linear regression, for every percentage increase for the Clinton campaign, there was 16,972 increase in the amount of under votes (R-squared: .432, SE: 2416.2, Sig: .000). Plainly stated, the higher the amount of under votes in a county, the higher the percentage of the vote Clinton received in that county. The graph below gives you an idea of what it looks like visually.

graph

However, could these numbers have benefited Hillary Clinton. Possibly. Of course, we do not know which exact precincts these numbers came from. At best, this trend might have put Florida in a possible recount situation. Still, there would not have been enough in this scenario for Clinton to have overtaken Trump. If anything, this shows that Clinton’s message didn’t stick with her voters.

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