Florida pre-Election Day numbers for 10/29: Could GOP creep in VBM matter?

tlhse_phototour03Here is a quick post regarding the latest pre-Election Day vote totals for Florida. Overall, 3,252,850 people have voted in Florida, which means that 25.54% of registered voters have already voted. Of that 3.3 million, 40.14% are registered Democrats, while 40.81% are Republicans. The overall swing in the state is 3.02% for the Republicans, but that number continues to reduce. However, as I have stated on all posts, voter registration is not an indication of vote choice. In addition, with NPA/Minor Party voters consisting of 19.04% of the electorate, anything is possible.

Looking at party totals, turnout among Democrats is 25.54%, with Republicans having a 27.07% turnout rate. NPA/Minor party turnout is 11.35%. Even though the numbers are lower, the fact that they are nearly 20% of the overall electorate is quite significant, especially in early voting (as many of these voters are Election Day voters).

Early vote numbers continue to favor Democrats, but the gap is closing. Of those who have voted, 41.8% are Democrats, with 39.14% Republican and 19.16% being NPA/Minor Party. This still gives Democrats a minor swing of .41%. As for vote-by-mail, Republicans continue to dominate, consisting of 42.15% of votes cast by mail. Democrats only account for 38.91% of all vote-by-mail ballots cast. This results in a 5.59% swing for Republicans. With this number continuing to increase, should Democrats be worried? The early voting numbers are not offsetting the vote-by-mail numbers. However, over the next few days, early voting totals should overtake VBM totals.

Finally, 63.89% of vote-by-mail ballots have been returned and counted.


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