Florida pre-Election Day vote totals for Oct. 19: Republicans widening gap.

tlhse_phototour03Latest pre-Election Day vote numbers in Florida.

Forty-eight hours ago, the gap between Democratic and Republican vote-by-mall ballots cast was only 90. As of this morning, the gap has grown to a 10,774 vote advantage for the GOP. So far, Republicans have cast 316,400 votes, or 41.72% of the total vote. Democrats have cast 305,626 votes, or 40.3%. NPA/Other voters have cast 136,365 votes. As a result, the swing (explained here) now gives the Republicans a 3.77% advantage.

As far as the State of Florida in general, turnout is now at 5.96%. The county with the highest turnout is Lee County with 15.02% turnout. Glades has the lowest turnout, as they have reported no returns yet. Charlotte County has the largest percentage of vote-by-mail ballots returned at 46.67%.

Looking at the state on a county-by-county level, there are some changes to be noted. One county to keep an eye on is Sumter, where the Democratic swing is 8.40%. While Democrats should not be expected to win Sumter County, the results might be closer than expected (as registration should reflect vote choice more accurately than in North Florida counties).

In Hillsborough and Duval, Democrats continue to slide. The Republican-favored swing in Hillsborough is now .88%, and a massive 10.22% in Duval. Another county that is sliding for the Democrats is Miami-Dade County. The Republicans have a swing of 6.58%. In the case of Duval and Miami-Dade, the vote-by-mail return rate is still quite small (14.59% and 18.24%, respectively) compared to Hillsborough County (32.84%).

Again, (and this will be repeated with each early vote update) it should be noted in this analysis that voter registration does not equate to vote choice. Therefore, these numbers should just be examined only within the scope of voter registration turnout.


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