With vote-by-mail ballots starting to trickle in, the numbers between the Democrats are Republicans are somewhat tight. So far, 311,673 people have voted in the Florida, with the Republicans having a slight 42.04% edge over the Democrats, who have received 40.15% of the votes cast. With this being said, it should be noted the turnout in Miami-Dade County is only .08%, and only .01% in Palm Beach County, while strong Republican counties, like Collier, have nearly had 7% of the votes cast. Therefore, if the Republicans are already voting, only have this slight edge, then Democrats look to be in a strong position come Election Day.
Even with examining the overall numbers, there are some counties to watch in the coming weeks. The first one that really sticks out is Sarasota County. So far, 4% of the vote has turned out and the Democrats have a strong 45.3% to 37.6% advantage over the Republicans, which results in nearly 1,000 more Democratic voters turning out. Compared to the number of registered voters, this is nearly a 10% swing* to the Democrats. Two other counties which are standing out are Pasco and Charlotte, with a 3.1% swing to the Democrats. St. Johns County is seeing a 3.5% Democratic swing. Therefore, the gulf cost from Pasco to Charlotte Counties are looking good for Democrats.
What is also interesting is seeing decent size swings toward the Democrats in strong Democratic counties. Alachua County has a 7% swing to the Democrats. Broward County has a 2.2% Democratic swing. Even though Miami-Dade only has early numbers in, there is a 3% swing for the Democrats.
For the Republicans, their strongest region still seems to be the Panhandle. Some places are seeing as much as a 30% swing against the Democrats. But these counties are quite small and will not really play a role in the overall numbers.
Overall in the state, the Republicans have a 2% swing advantage. However, those numbers should be changing once Miami-Dade and Palm Beach start reporting more turnout numbers.
*The “swing” calculation being used is similar to Sir David Butler’s Swingometer used in British elections. However, the numbers used here are the current turnout numbers compared to the number actually have voted (since we do not have any actual election results). As a result, NPA/Others are excluded from the swing.