Florida pre-Election Day numbers for 10/29: Could GOP creep in VBM matter?

tlhse_phototour03Here is a quick post regarding the latest pre-Election Day vote totals for Florida. Overall, 3,252,850 people have voted in Florida, which means that 25.54% of registered voters have already voted. Of that 3.3 million, 40.14% are registered Democrats, while 40.81% are Republicans. The overall swing in the state is 3.02% for the Republicans, but that number continues to reduce. However, as I have stated on all posts, voter registration is not an indication of vote choice. In addition, with NPA/Minor Party voters consisting of 19.04% of the electorate, anything is possible.

Looking at party totals, turnout among Democrats is 25.54%, with Republicans having a 27.07% turnout rate. NPA/Minor party turnout is 11.35%. Even though the numbers are lower, the fact that they are nearly 20% of the overall electorate is quite significant, especially in early voting (as many of these voters are Election Day voters). Continue reading

Republicans continue strong showing in Florida vote-by-mail race over Democrats.

voteIn two days, early voting starts throughout the State of Florida. At that time, we should expect to see the numbers change drastically. But until then, the Republicans continue to have a stronger-than-expected edge over the Democrats when it comes to vote-by-mail ballot submission.

As of this morning, 1.1 million Floridians have voted, resulting in a 8.7% turnout rate in Florida. Of those who requested a ballot by mail, 44.7% have already returned their ballots and have had them counted. Overall, 19.46% of Florida voters have asked for a ballot by mail.

Of the votes that have been counted, 40.02% have been cast by Democrats, while 41.88% have been cast by Republicans. The current swing still favors the Republicans at 4.20%, the largest lead the Republicans have had in the state to date. Continue reading

Socialists in the Redneck Riviera? Brian Moore’s unlikely 2010 success.

Jewel of The Emerald CoastOne of the more interesting observations in Florida’s modern political history was the performance of Socialist-turned-Democratic gubernatorial candidate Brian Moore during the 2010 Democratic primary against Alex Sink. Yes, Moore was beaten badly statewide. However, Moore was able to perform better in the northern part of the state, particularly the Florida Panhandle. If we look at Moore’s election results, 21 of his top 25 performing counties were in North Florida and the Panhandle. In Holmes County, Moore was within three votes of Democratic front-runner Alex Sink.Why was this the case?

For anyone who has been observing Florida politics (especially those who have been following me for a while on my other website), you know that North Florida has been shifting sharply toward the Republicans since the 1980s. Some of these counties used to be nearly as strongly Democratic as they are now strongly Republican. Still, as of 2016, the tide has turned.

So, why did Moore perform so well in these counties? Nobody has really tried to tackle this question. Yes, some people have noticed the trend, but they do not explain the Socialist phenomenon. Continue reading

Florida pre-Election Day numbers for 10/21: Republicans continue advantage.

Marco_Rubio_by_Gage_Skidmore_3.jpg

Could Miami-Dade County prove to be what tips the US Senate race to Marco Rubio?

Click here for the newest totals.

With only three days to go until early voting starts in Florida, nearly one million people have already voted in the state. As of this morning, 997,123 voters have cast their ballots, which is a overall turnout rate of 7.83%. So far, Republicans continue to have the advantage.

When breaking down the pre-Election Day totals, Democrats have cast 40.06% of the votes, while Republicans have cast 41.8% of the votes. This results in a 4.09% swing for the Republicans.  Continue reading

Florida pre-Election Day vote totals for Oct. 19: Republicans widening gap.

tlhse_phototour03Latest pre-Election Day vote numbers in Florida.

Forty-eight hours ago, the gap between Democratic and Republican vote-by-mall ballots cast was only 90. As of this morning, the gap has grown to a 10,774 vote advantage for the GOP. So far, Republicans have cast 316,400 votes, or 41.72% of the total vote. Democrats have cast 305,626 votes, or 40.3%. NPA/Other voters have cast 136,365 votes. As a result, the swing (explained here) now gives the Republicans a 3.77% advantage.

As far as the State of Florida in general, turnout is now at 5.96%. The county with the highest turnout is Lee County with 15.02% turnout. Glades has the lowest turnout, as they have reported no returns yet. Charlotte County has the largest percentage of vote-by-mail ballots returned at 46.67%. Continue reading

Florida pre-Election Day vote totals for Oct. 18: Republicans inching ahead.

voteFor latest pre-Election Day numbers, click here.

Yesterday, the gap between registered Democrats and Republicans voting in Florida was down to 90 votes. Today, the Republicans have increased gap to 5,606. Overall, 633,853 people have submitted their ballots in Florida, which brings the turnout rate to 5.01%. When breaking down party totals, 5.84% of Republicans have turned out to vote, while 5.37% of Democrats have turned out to vote. The turnout rate for NPA/Other registered voters is 3.37%. As a result of the increase in Republican votes, the state swing is now 3.21% in favor of the Republicans, up from 2.34% yesterday.
Continue reading

Florida vote-by-mail totals dead even.

entering-sarasota-county-630x286With exactly one week until early voting starts in Florida, Democrats have caught up to Republicans when it comes to vote by mail numbers. However, even though the pre-Election Day totals are now even, Democrats seem to maintain an advantage over the Republicans.

First, let’s look at the raw vote totals. With 513,698 votes cast so far in the state, only 90 votes separate the two major political parties, with the Republicans having the edge. Additionally, the overall state turnout rate as of now is 4.06%. When we break that down into political parties, the Democratic turnout rate is 4.39%, the Republican turnout rate is 4.68%, and NPA/Other turnout rate being 2.74%. Of those who have requested vote-by-mail ballots (which, as of now, is 2.453,504), 19.38% have been returned and counted. Continue reading

Florida turnout for 10/14: Neck-and-neck, kind of. Watch Sarasota!

Click HERE for the recently updated early vote totals in Florida.

With vote-by-mail ballots starting to trickle in, the numbers between the Democrats are Republicans are somewhat tight. So far, 311,673 people have voted in the Florida, with the Republicans having a slight 42.04% edge over the Democrats, who have received 40.15% of the votes cast. With this being said, it should be noted the turnout in Miami-Dade County is only .08%, and only .01% in Palm Beach County, while strong Republican counties, like Collier, have nearly had 7% of the votes cast. Therefore, if the Republicans are already voting, only have this slight edge, then Democrats look to be in a strong position come Election Day.

Even with examining the overall numbers, there are some counties to watch in the coming weeks. The first one that really sticks out is Sarasota County. So far, 4% of the vote has turned out and the Democrats have a strong 45.3% to 37.6% advantage over the Republicans, which results in nearly 1,000 more Democratic voters turning out. Compared to the number of registered voters, this is nearly a 10% swing* to the Democrats. Two other counties which are standing out are Pasco and Charlotte, with a 3.1% swing to the Democrats. St. Johns County is seeing a 3.5% Democratic swing. Therefore, the gulf cost from Pasco to Charlotte Counties are looking good for Democrats.

What is also interesting is seeing decent size swings toward the Democrats in strong Democratic counties. Alachua County has a 7% swing to the Democrats. Broward County has a 2.2% Democratic swing. Even though Miami-Dade only has early numbers in, there is a 3% swing for the Democrats.

For the Republicans, their strongest region still seems to be the Panhandle. Some places are seeing as much as a 30% swing against the Democrats. But these counties are quite small and will not really play a role in the overall numbers.

Overall in the state, the Republicans have a 2% swing advantage. However, those numbers should be changing once Miami-Dade and Palm Beach start reporting more turnout numbers.

*The “swing” calculation being used is similar to Sir David Butler’s Swingometer used in British elections. However, the numbers used here are the current turnout numbers compared to the number actually have voted (since we do not have any actual election results). As a result, NPA/Others are excluded from the swing.