Florida’s presidential under votes 251% higher than 2012. Would it have helped Clinton?

voteOver the past few hours, we have been hearing about Michigan’s under vote problem. However, with most of the numbers now in, we are seeing that the State of Florida also had a massive under vote issue in the presidential election.

In 2012, the amount of under votes in the presidential race was 64,085. In 2016, that number has spiked to 160,601, a 250.6% increase in Florida’s under votes. If we look at the percentages, only .75% of people who cast their ballots in Florida did not vote in the presidential race. In 2016, that percentage has jumped to 1.71%. And yes, the current margin between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in Florida is 1.27%. Continue reading

Florida’s presidential under votes 251% higher than 2012. Would it have helped Clinton?

voteOver the past few hours, we have been hearing about Michigan’s under vote problem. However, with most of the numbers now in, we are seeing that the State of Florida also had a massive under vote issue in the presidential election.

In 2012, the amount of under votes in the presidential race was 64,085. In 2016, that number has spiked to 160,601, a 250.6% increase in Florida’s under votes. If we look at the percentages, only .75% of people who cast their ballots in Florida did not vote in the presidential race. In 2016, that percentage has jumped to 1.71%. And yes, the current margin between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in Florida is 1.27%. Continue reading

My accurate election forecast model for Florida…and why I lied about it.

st_20161110_vn1213a_2731023As many of you know, I like to forecast. Many of the forecasts that I have done are trial and error. You come up with a hypothesis, test it, see if it holds, and are either happy with joy for being right or depressed that you were totally wrong. Last election, I tried predicting Florida legislative elections using top-of-the-ticket support, party composition, and money spent by candidates. Guess what, I was WAY off on some seats (though I think the model can be saved using different approaches).

This year, I created a model to forecast the upcoming presidential election. My model was based on pre-Election Day vote totals to determine partisan enthusiasm for presidential candidates (since most people are voting for president first and foremost).

Before I get into the “why I lied about it” part of the title, I first need to explain my model and show my results. So let’s start! Continue reading

I don’t want to sound like the “skewed polls guy”, but…Florida CBS/YouGov poll inaccurate.

unskewed

I mean, it isn’t this bad.

So, I decided to look at some of the polls that are coming out of Florida over the last few days to get an idea of how accurate they might be. However, there is one poll that we can (for a lack of a better word) call “bullshit” on.

So, to set a baseline, let’s look at pre-Election Day voting numbers in Florida. It is important to note that these are hard numbers, meaning that there is no “sampling error”, because it isn’t a sample of a population, but the actual vote that has happened to this point. Additionally, polls are supposed to give us a “snapshot” of a particular moment in time. Since the polls I will be referencing in this piece were just conducted, we can take the numbers from this exact moment. Therefore, if the poll is an accurate reflection of “this moment in time”, there should only be a difference of the “margin of error” between the polls and the actual numbers. Luckily, we can match these numbers up to determine the true accuracy. Again, that is important to remember. Continue reading

TargetSmart numbers: Could Hillary be heading toward a landslide Florida?

254348-jpg-resize-710x399Last week, TargetSmart released a poll stating that 28% of Republicans in early voting are voting for Trump. Overall, this gave Clinton a 55%-37% advantage in the state. Of course, the sample size was only 311. But what if we applied the percentages that TargetSmat came up with to the actual early vote numbers? Would the same apply?

As of right now, 5.69 million people have voted in Florida, with 39.66% Democrats, 39.53% Republicans, and 20.18% NPA/Other. If we take the TargetSmart percentages by party and apply them to the actual numbers, will there be a change? If the TargetSmart numbers deviate from the actual numbers when we apply their percentages, that means that they over- or under-sampled a specific group of people. So, if Hillary received 55% in the poll, but when you apply the numbers she only received 50%, then TargetSmart got something wrong. Continue reading

Will the #NeverTrump movement hold? Thirty precincts in Florida to watch on Election Night.

nggkowgpOne of the biggest questions to be answered next Tuesday is whether the Never Trump movement will hold steady, or will eventually cave in and support Trump on Election Day? Whether the movement holds does not necessarily mean that Trump will lose, but will show that there might be a shift in the Republican Party that will take place over the next several years.

To see if the Never Trump movement holds, I have selected thirty precincts to watch on Election Night. All of the precincts listed are strong Republican precincts, with 46% of more of the precincts being registered as Republicans, yet Donald Trump performed poorly in the precinct compared to the state average. Additionally, Mitt Romney received 57.63% of more in each of these precincts. If these strong Republican precincts under-perform for Trump, then we might see the shift starting immediately. Continue reading

Florida pre-Election Day numbers for 10/29: Could GOP creep in VBM matter?

tlhse_phototour03Here is a quick post regarding the latest pre-Election Day vote totals for Florida. Overall, 3,252,850 people have voted in Florida, which means that 25.54% of registered voters have already voted. Of that 3.3 million, 40.14% are registered Democrats, while 40.81% are Republicans. The overall swing in the state is 3.02% for the Republicans, but that number continues to reduce. However, as I have stated on all posts, voter registration is not an indication of vote choice. In addition, with NPA/Minor Party voters consisting of 19.04% of the electorate, anything is possible.

Looking at party totals, turnout among Democrats is 25.54%, with Republicans having a 27.07% turnout rate. NPA/Minor party turnout is 11.35%. Even though the numbers are lower, the fact that they are nearly 20% of the overall electorate is quite significant, especially in early voting (as many of these voters are Election Day voters). Continue reading